• Economic Update

    • economic update
    • economicupdate
      • August-2023: Domestic Economy Remain Solid Amidst Global Uncertainty That Still High
        The global economy is expected to improve in its development, although it is still below historical levels. Global commodity prices are continuing to normalize, although they have been pushed up slightly due to rising plantation commodity prices due to the El Nino phenomenon which has triggered prolonged drought in various major exporting countries. This provides support for inflation which continues in a downward path in various countries in line with the trend of tightening monetary policy which continues until this August. More detail ...
      • June-2023: Indonesia’s Economy Still Solid Amid Global Economic Divergence Haunted By Geopolitical R
        Until the end of the 1st semester of 2023, the global economy is seen experiencing a divergence in recovery between developed countries which are slowing down, and developing countries which are experiencing accelerated growth. Pressure from the commodity price side continues to ease, but inflation tends to be difficult to reduce in line with core inflation conditions which are still high due to tight employment conditions in various countries. This then prompted various central banks to continue their tightening cycle after being paused at the beginning of the second quarter. The continued tightening of various countries, especially developed countries, has triggered a weakening of the exchange rate and a correction in the stock market due to capital outflows from developing countries. More detail ...
      • April-2023: Indonesia’s Economy is Able to Perform Solidly and Continue Growing with Confidence Amid
        The global economy is still overshadowed by uncertainty in line with high geopolitical tensions and shocks that have occurred in the financial sector. However, in line with the disinflationary process that has started due to the normalization of commodity prices and efforts to tighten monetary policies by various central banks, global economic performance is still showing a good trend, and various countries are able to grow above expectations. In contrast to the conditions surrounding the global economy, the domestic economy was able to record very good economic growth and above estimates in line with the ongoing recovery in various sectors as well as support from fiscal-monetary policies that were able to maintain resilience and conditions of continuous improvement. The prospects for the domestic economy also look very good as various leading indicators are showing optimism and continuing good results. Nonetheless, good economic conditions are not immediately answered by conditions in the issuance of corporate debt securities, which until the first 4 months of 2023 still show a slowdown along with high-interest rates. More detail ...
      • February-2023: The Economy in Early 2023: The Promise of a Recovery But Need to Remain Vigilant
        The world economy in 2023 is expected to grow higher than previous estimates in line with inflation, which has reached a turning point in several countries, and monetary policy tightening, which has begun to slow down. Nonetheless, the risk of monetary policy tightening that was pursued so high throughout 2022 requires continued vigilance for the risks, especially the impact on corporate performance in various parts of the world. From domestic development, economic conditions that keep showing good performance continue to provide their own optimism. The central bank has kept interest rates on hold since February 2023 as inflation is expected to continue to slow and decline. This then gives a positive sentiment even though the risks from the policies posed also need to be watched out for. The condition of the national macro economy, which continues to show good performance as reflected in the latest leading indicators, is also expected to be followed by the company's need for funding to expand in order to respond to the increase in demand. This then encourages the issuance of bonds to grow in the first two months of 2023 when compared to the first two months of the previous year. More detail ...
      • December-2022: Indonesia Economic Outlook 2023: Maintaining Resilience Amid High Uncertainty
        The war between Russia and Ukraine has brought uncertainty back to levels above the average for the past 22 years. Increased uncertainty was caused by soaring commodity prices and resulted in rising inflation in all countries in the world. This then made central banks in various countries, including developed countries, increase their interest rates to tame the rising inflation. However, this policy had an impact on weakening global economic growth which has occurred since the second semester and is expected to continue in 2023. Nonetheless, the Indonesian economy, which until the third quarter of 2022 managed to achieve a solid economic recovery with growth of 5.7%, is expected to continue to recover along with various leading indicators which are still showing good performance. Throughout 2022, Indonesia become one of the countries that have succeeded in suppressing inflation due to an optimal mix of monetary and fiscal policies, so that the soaring price that occurs at the global level are not fully transmitted to the domestic economy. In 2023, PEFINDO projects that the Indonesian economy will be able to grow in the range of 4.9% - 5.2% supported by solid consumption, and the windfall effect of rising commodity prices will still leave opportunities that can be exploited to boost exports. With the global economic downturn that is expected to give a minimum impact on the domestic economy, business activities are predicted to continue the positive trend and encourage the issuance of corporate debt securities which are expected to reach IDR144.24 – 158.27 trillion. Challenges such as interest rates and inflation which remain high, the value of bonds with a lower maturity in 2023, and the wait-and-see condition that might occur in line with conditions leading up to the elections, still overshadow the Indonesian debt market in 2023. However, the opportunities that emerged from the maintained macroeconomic conditions and the still attractive Indonesian bond market, could also encourage the issuance of bonds to be higher in 2023. More detail ...
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